A Note from Samra Wealth Management

 

January 11, 2026

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Strategic Retrospective: The 2017 Framework

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In our 2017 publication, “Should You Invest in Bitcoin?”, Samra Wealth Management established an early-entry framework for digital assets during a period of minimal institutional participation. This thesis was predicated on two cornerstone arguments that remain central to our long-term view:

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• The Evolutionary Leap: We characterized cryptocurrency as the “evolutionary next step to fiat currency,” identifying that algorithmic scarcity would eventually challenge traditional sovereign debt models amidst expanding global fiscal deficits.

• Risk-Mitigated Early Exposure: Given the nascent volatility profile of the asset class at the time, early institutional and advisory frameworks emphasized constrained exposure parameters to manage drawdowns while preserving asymmetric upside potential. 

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The Institutional Regime: High-Correlation Dynamics

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The decade since our initial note has been defined by the credentialing of Bitcoin. The asset has transitioned from the periphery to the core of institutional technology buckets, a shift that has fundamentally altered its trading behavior.

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• NASDAQ Synchronization: Bitcoin currently exhibits a persistent high correlation with the NASDAQ-100. The entry of significant institutional capital, bolstered by the 2024-2025 ETF cycle and sovereign-level interest, has transformed the asset into a high-beta proxy for global liquidity and technological growth.

• First Mover Evolution: While early adopters sought an alternative to centralized finance, the 2026 reality is one of integration. The active involvement of the Trump family and mainstream political figures has served as a primary catalyst for social acceptance, moving the asset from counter-culture speculation to a codified component of the modern financial infrastructure.

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2026 Portfolio Calibration: Composite Exposure Frameworks

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Reflecting on the expanded functionality of the blockchain ecosystem, institutional discourse around digital assets has evolved beyond binary ownership toward layered exposure frameworks. As utility, settlement, and tokenization use cases mature, market participants increasingly differentiate between core digital assets and infrastructure-oriented protocols.

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• Core Digital Assets: Within institutional discussions, core digital assets are often evaluated as a long-duration liquidity expression, reflecting their role as macro-sensitive instruments tied to global risk appetite and monetary conditions.

• Utility Infrastructure: Parallel attention has shifted toward infrastructure-level protocols that support smart contracts, decentralized finance, and real-world asset tokenization. These assets are frequently assessed through a functional lens, emphasizing throughput, adoption, and network utility rather than pure monetary characteristics.

• Composite Perspective: Taken together, this layered approach reflects the maturation of digital assets from a single-expression trade into a multi-component ecosystem with differentiated risk and return drivers.

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Execution Considerations: Currency Denomination and Risk Dynamics

The efficacy of digital asset exposure is influenced not only by asset selection, but also by the unit of account through which exposure is established. Currency denomination functions as an independent risk variable, capable of amplifying or offsetting asset-level performance.

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From a market-structure perspective:

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• Capital Preservation Context: Historically, reserve-anchored currencies such as the Swiss Franc have exhibited lower volatility during periods of fiscal stress, influencing the translation of asset returns when paired with non-dilutable stores of value.

• Tactical Growth Context: Funding currencies, including the Japanese Yen, have periodically displayed pronounced mean-reversion behavior during shifts in global rate differentials, affecting the return profile of risk assets denominated in those units.

• Operational Liquidity Context: The U.S. Dollar continues to dominate global liquidity, settlement, and price discovery, particularly for assets requiring rapid execution and rebalancing.

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These currency characteristics can materially affect volatility, drawdowns, and correlation—independent of digital asset fundamentals.

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The transition from early digital experimentation in 2017 to a structurally integrated ecosystem in 2026 reflects a broader asset-class maturation. As alternative assets increasingly intersect with institutional balance sheets and financial infrastructure, the opportunity set has shifted away from binary ownership toward nuanced exposure management across liquidity, utility, and denomination layers.

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At Samra Wealth Management, we view this evolution as emblematic of a broader market truth: as new asset classes institutionalize, differentiation migrates from what is owned to how risk is structured and managed.

 

 

 

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Reference

Bank of America Global Research (2025) The Case for $5,000 Gold: Fiscal Deficits and the New Scarcity, New York: Bank of America.

 

Bernstein Research (2025) Bitcoin's Institutional Supercycle: Targets for 2026 and 2027, New York: AllianceBernstein.

 

CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) (2026) US Senate Banking Committee Draft Proposal, Washington, DC: US Congress.

 

Forex.com (2026) Bitcoin Outlook: Institutional Correlation and the Risk-Aversion Narrative, [Online] Available at: https://www.forex.com (Accessed: 13 January 2026).

 

GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act) (2025) Public Law 119-XX, Washington, DC: US Government Publishing Office.

 

Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (2025) Gold: Converging Toward $4,900 on Central Bank Resumption, New York: Goldman Sachs.

 

Investing.com (2025) Year Ahead 2026: Where Will Bitcoin Be in a Year’s Time?, [Online] Available at: https://www.investing.com (Accessed: 13 January 2026).

 

J.P. Morgan Global Research (2025) 2026 Commodities Outlook: Gold Conviction and the $5,055 Target, New York: J.P. Morgan.

 

J.P. Morgan Global Research (2026) The Tokenization Wave: Why Ethereum Infrastructure is the Future of Money, New York: J.P. Morgan.

 

Samra Wealth Management (2017) Should You Invest in Bitcoin?, Samra Wealth Management.

 

State Street Global Advisors (2025) Why Bitcoin Institutional Demand is on the Rise: A Market Structure Analysis, Boston: SSGA.

 

Time Magazine (2025) 3 Ways Trump’s Wealth Has Soared Since He Returned to Office, [Online] Available at: https://time.com (Accessed: 13 January 2026).

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Disclosure

This material is provided as a courtesy and for educational purposes only. This does not constitute a recommendation or a solicitation or offer of the purchase or sale of securities. Please consult your investment professional, legal or tax advisor for specific information pertaining to your situation.

All information contained herein is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.

All views/opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views/opinions held by Advisory Services Network, LLC.

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Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

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Investment advisory services offered through Samra Wealth Management, a Member of Advisory Services Network, LLC

 

 

 

 

 

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