I recently spent a few days in Scottsdale speaking on a panel at the Opal Public Funds Summit. While the official sessions were all about the long-term health of retirement plans, the real "hallway talk" among the experts was about the dramatic news from January 3rd—the U.S. operation in Venezuela and the capture of their leader, Nicolas Maduro.

 

If you’ve been watching the show Landman on Paramount+, you know exactly the kind of "roughneck and billionaire" world I’m talking about. The show does a great job of showing the grit, the danger, and the high-stakes deals in the West Texas oil fields. But while the show focuses on the drama of the Permian Basin, the real-life drama in Venezuela is what is currently shifting the ground beneath our feet.

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As someone who has built, managed, and exited businesses in the trucking industry, I know that when global headlines move this fast, it can feel like a Taylor Sheridan script. But behind the high-stakes politics is a simple story about the energy that powers your daily life. This month, I want to translate those headlines into what they actually mean for you.

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1. The $56 Reality: Good News at the Pump

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Despite the shock of the news, oil prices haven't skyrocketed. In fact, the price for a barrel of oil is currently sitting around $56.

 

What it means for you: For the average family, this is helping keep gas prices low. Even with the uncertainty in South America, there is plenty of oil in the world right now. This "extra" supply is acting like a safety net, preventing a major spike in what you pay to fill up your car for the school run or the commute.

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The Forecast: Experts are predicting that gas prices across the country could stay around $2.97 a gallon for much of 2026—the lowest we've seen in years.

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2. "Whole Milk" vs. "Skim": Why Venezuela is the Missing Piece

 

In my years running trucking companies, I learned that not all oil is the same. I often use a simple kitchen analogy to explain why Venezuela is so important to us. They sit on the world's largest reserves (about 300 billion barrels), but it's the type of oil that matters:

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Light Oil (The "Skim Milk"): Most of the oil we pull out of the ground here in the U.S. is "light." It’s great for making gasoline for our cars, but it’s thin.

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Heavy Oil (The "Whole Milk"): Venezuela produces a specific "heavy" crude. This thick, syrupy oil is the secret ingredient needed to make high-quality diesel and jet fuel.

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For years, this "Whole Milk" was trapped behind a wall of foreign influence. China acted as the bank, Russia provided military protection, and Iran provided the technical "know-how" to keep the machines running. This month, that wall began to come down, potentially opening a direct line for our Gulf Coast refineries to get the exact "ingredients" they were built to use.

 

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3. Cheap Oil is Not a "Free Lunch"

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While we celebrate lower prices at the pump, my experience in both the trucking and wealth management industries has taught me that "cheap" is a double-edged sword.

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From a basic economic perspective, falling prices for essentials rarely lead to people using much more of them. Think about it: if the price of milk drops, you don't suddenly drink twice as much milk. You just  keep  the extra money in your pocket. Oil works the same way. When gas prices drop, you don't necessarily drive twice as many miles; the money simply moves from one person's pocket to another's.

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The Winners: Lower energy costs are a massive win for the companies that move things: shippers, airlines, and manufacturers. When their costs go down, their profit margins expand.

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The Trade-off: However, when prices retreat toward that $50–$56 range, it gets very difficult for our own local producers in places like North Dakota and West Texas (the real-life "landmen") to make a profit. We are already starting to see slower growth and less spending in those regions.

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4. The World is Watching 

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While the U.S. is moving fast, other oil-producing countries are taking a "wait and see" approach. They have hit the pause button on their own production for February and March to see how this new supply from Venezuela affects the global market. This cautious move helps keep the economy more stable by preventing prices from swinging wildly.

 

A Final Thought

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I often think back to the nightly family dinners with my father. He taught me that a solid foundation isn't built when the storm is hitting; it’s built during the quiet moments of preparation.

 

The events in Venezuela are a reminder that the world can shift in a single weekend. It's why I find so much value in looking past the scary headlines to find the real story. My goal is to help you find that same clarity, focusing on the stability of your family's future rather than the noise of the day.  Sometimes the best perspective doesn't come from a computer, it comes from understanding the grit it takes to keep the engines of our world running.

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References

Argus Media, 2026. OPEC+ 8 reconfirm decision to keep output steady in Q1. [online] Available at: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2771730-opec-8-reconfirm-decision-to-keep-output-steady-in-q1

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Automotive Fleet, 2026. January Fuel Update: 2026 Projects Lowest Numbers Since the Pandemic. [online] Available at: https://www.automotive-fleet.com/10252782/january-fuel-update-2026-projects-lowest-numbers-since-the-pandemic

Investing.com, 2026. Crude Oil WTI Futures Historical Prices. [online] Available at: https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil-historical-data

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Statista, 2026. Chart: Venezuela Sits on a Fifth of the World's Oil. [online] Available at: https://www.statista.com/chart/16830/countries-with-the-largest-proven-crude-oil-reserves/

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Stillwater Associates, 2025. What More Venezuelan Crude Imports Could Mean for the U.S. Crude Slate. [online] Available at: https://stillwaterassociates.com/what-more-venezuelan-crude-imports-could-mean-for-the-u-s-crude-slate/

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The Guardian, 2026. Dense, sticky and heavy: why Venezuelan crude oil appeals to US refineries. [online] Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jan/05/venezuelan-crude-oil-appeals-to-us-refineries

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