A Note from Samra Wealth Management

 

January 11, 2026

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The 2026 Macro Convergence

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The investment landscape of 2026 has transitioned from a decade of cheap money into a structural regime defined by the triad of scarcity: Bullion (Monetary Scarcity), Energy (Input Scarcity), and Digital Assets (Algorithmic Scarcity). As global liquidity continues to fragment along geopolitical lines, Samra Wealth Management views the primary source of institutional alpha not as a directional bet, but as the execution of the unit of account arbitrage.

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With Gold targets currently modeled at $5,055/oz (J.P. Morgan, Dec 2025) and Bitcoin establishing a consistent +0.72 correlation to hard assets, the mandate is to synchronize asset selection with optimal currency entry.

 

The Pillars of the Real-Asset Complex

 

Bullion: The Non-Dilutable Anchor

• As of Q1 2026, the bullion market is underpinned by a structural shift in reserve management. Central banks are projected to purchase 755 tonnes this year (J.P. Morgan Research, 2026), creating a formidable price floor.

  • The Structural Trade: We are observing a persistent Shanghai-London Basis. The Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) currently commands a $100–$140/oz premium over LBMA London spot prices.

  • Institutional Flow: Sophisticated desks are not merely buying gold; they are arbitraging the locational delta by purchasing in London (USD) and settling via synthetic swaps in Shanghai (CNY) to capture the regional scarcity premium.

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Energy: WTI Crude and the Supply Glut

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In contrast to the scarcity in monetary assets, the 2026 oil market faces a significant supply overhang. Output from Brazil, Guyana, and Canada has pushed global production past demand growth, with the IEA projecting a surplus of nearly 4 mb/d.

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• The Strategic Hedge: In our opinion, WTI at $55–$60/bbl serves as a perfect hedge for digital asset miners and energy-intensive industries.

• Petro-Yuan vs. Petro-Dollar: The rise of CNY-denominated oil futures has created a settlement spread. Arbitrageurs are now long Brent (USD) while simultaneously shorting Petro-Yuan (CNY) contracts to exploit the friction between Western and BRICS+ clearing systems.

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Digital Assets: The Infrastructure of Scarcity

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Bitcoin has entered what we term the institutional maturity phase. Following the massive 2025 ETF inflows, it now functions as a high-velocity proxy for global M2 liquidity.

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• The Energy-Hash Nexus: Low-cost energy surpluses from the oil glut are being diverted into Bitcoin mining, effectively setting a floor price for energy denominated in SATs (units of Bitcoin).

• Stablecoin Yield Arbitrage: With the passage of the GENIUS Act in late 2025, regulated stablecoins offer a "safety-valve" yield. The current professional trade is the spread between the 4.5% Treasury-backed stable yield and the 11–13% DeFi liquidity pools.

  • currency risk.

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Sensitivity Analysis

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• Energy Shock (+20% Oil): Would compress Bitcoin mining margins but catalyze a move in Bullion toward the $5,300/oz stress-case target.

• Regulatory Chokepoints: 2026 compliance for non-KYC wallets could lead to a 15% liquidity discount on unregulated digital assets.

• USD Strength Reversal: Should the Fed pivot hawkishly due to sticky inflation, the carry trade in JPY-denominated assets could face a rapid, volatile unwinding.

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The 2026 environment rewards the multi-silo investor who understands that wealth is no longer a function of just owning, but of navigating the gateways between them. In our professional opinion, the transition from a traditional 60/40 model to a 40/30/30 (Equities/Bonds/Real Assets) is the hallmark of institutional resilience this year.

 

 

 

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References

Argus Media, 2026. OPEC+ 8 reconfirm decision to keep output steady in Q1. [online] Available at: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2771730-opec-8-reconfirm-decision-to-keep-output-steady-in-q1

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International Energy Agency (IEA), 2025. IEA trims forecast of record oil glut for first time since May. [online] Available at: https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2025/12/12/iea-trims-forecast-of-record-oil-glut-for-first-time-since-may-00686677

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J.P. Morgan Global Research, 2025. A new high? | Gold price predictions from J.P. Morgan Global Research. [online] Available at: https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/commodities/gold-prices

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J.P. Morgan Research, 2026. The Golden Renaissance: J.P. Morgan Forecasts Gold at $5,400 as Historic 2026 Rally Begins. [online] Available at: https://markets.financialcontent.com/1discountbrokerage/article/marketminute-2026-1-2-the-golden-renaissance-jp-morgan-forecasts-gold-at-5400-as-historic-2026-rally-begins

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Statista, 2026. Chart: Venezuela Sits on a Fifth of the World's Oil. [online] Available at: https://www.statista.com/chart/16830/countries-with-the-largest-proven-crude-oil-reserves/

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Stillwater Associates, 2025. What More Venezuelan Crude Imports Could Mean for the U.S. Crude Slate. [online] Available at: https://stillwaterassociates.com/what-more-venezuelan-crude-imports-could-mean-for-the-u-s-crude-slate/

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U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2026. Short-Term Energy Outlook - January 2026. [online] Available at: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

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Disclosure

This material is provided as a courtesy and for educational purposes only. This does not constitute a recommendation or a solicitation or offer of the purchase or sale of securities. Please consult your investment professional, legal or tax advisor for specific information pertaining to your situation.

All information contained herein is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results.

All views/opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views/opinions held by Advisory Services Network, LLC.

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Investing involves risk including loss of principal.

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Investment advisory services offered through Samra Wealth Management, a Member of Advisory Services Network, LLC

 

 

 

 

 

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